We started this farm because we believe families shouldn't have to depend on supply chains that stretch halfway around the world just to eat. Recent events have made that conviction feel a lot less abstract. Here's what we're watching, what it could mean for grocery prices across the Portland–Vancouver metro and Southwest Washington, and how a Resiliency CSA share helps — no matter what happens next.
Climate change is already reshaping food in the Pacific Northwest
Regardless of what happens politically or geopolitically, the climate we grow food in is changing. The 2021 heat dome hit 116°F in Portland and killed over a billion marine animals in the PNW. Wildfire smoke has closed schools and degraded air quality multiple summers in the last five years. Cascades snowpack — the water supply for most of western Oregon and Washington agriculture — is declining decade over decade. Growing seasons are shifting. Precipitation patterns are becoming less predictable. These aren't projections about 2050. These are things we've lived through already.
Climate change isn't a separate issue from food security — it's the same issue. A food system that depends on long-distance trucking, synthetic fertilizer from natural gas, and irrigation from shrinking snowpack gets more fragile every year. The acute crises described below are layered on top of this chronic reality. Building local, solar-powered, soil-based food production isn't just a hedge against the current war. It's the right direction for the next fifty years.
Food is getting more expensive — and the reasons aren't going away soon
The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which 20% of the world's oil and natural gas normally flows. Iran has set up what shipping analysts are calling a "toll booth," charging tankers up to $2 million each for safe passage. Nearly 2,000 ships are stuck waiting on either side of the strait. Oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel for the first time in years.
That matters for your grocery bill because of diesel and fertilizer. Every item at Fred Meyer got there on a diesel-powered truck. The average piece of food in America travels 1,500 miles from farm to plate. And the Gulf states whose natural gas feeds the world's fertilizer plants — Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE — are at the center of this conflict. Qatar has already declared force majeure on its gas exports. Fertilizer prices are climbing.
When supply chains break, shelves get unpredictable
If the conflict expands — and U.S. ground troops are now deploying to the region — the disruptions get worse, not better. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE depend almost entirely on desalination plants for drinking water. Those plants are coastal, exposed, and already within range of Iranian missiles and drones. If water infrastructure is hit, millions of people face a humanitarian crisis — and the global food system gets pulled into the response.
Closer to home, it's not just price — it's availability. During the 2022 supply chain disruptions, shelves at PNW grocery stores were spotty for months. That was caused by port congestion and trucking shortages. A sustained Middle East energy crisis would be more severe: diesel above $7 a gallon makes some long-haul produce runs economically unviable. Why ship lettuce 800 miles from California's Central Valley when the fuel costs more than the product?
Real resilience means food, water, and community you can count on
We hope it doesn't come to this. But part of being honest with our community means acknowledging that the current trajectory — a ground war in Iran, great-power tensions with China, the U.S. dollar's role in the global economy being actively challenged — could lead to a period of genuine upheaval. The kind where the question isn't "why are groceries expensive?" but "can I reliably feed my family this winter?"
Right now, Iran is collecting tolls in Chinese yuan from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Countries like China, India, Pakistan, and Malaysia are negotiating access deals directly with Tehran — bypassing the U.S. dollar entirely. This isn't a conspiracy theory; it's reported by Bloomberg, the Financial Times, and NBC News this week. What it means is that the financial system that keeps American grocery prices stable — cheap energy, strong dollar, open shipping lanes — is under more pressure than at any point in most of our lifetimes.
We've designed an escalation ladder of mutual aid arrangements — already thought through, already in place — so that as conditions change, members have clear ways to participate that fit their situation. In good times, your share is a straightforward subscription to exceptional local food. If times get tighter, work-share shifts let you stay fed without financial strain. If things get genuinely hard, we're organized for barter, labor exchange, and community coordination centered on the farm. You don't have to figure it out in the moment — the structure is already here, waiting.
A strong farm community is a balanced one. We actively want a mix of members: people who can confidently sustain a full-price share and whose financial support keeps the infrastructure solid, alongside people who'd rather be out in the field, contributing their energy and skill, and who genuinely enjoy the work. Both are essential. The member who funds a row of seed potatoes and the member who plants them are equally valuable to what we're building here. That diversity — of means, of skills, of what people can offer — is what makes a community resilient, not just a farm.
We deliver and arrange pickups across the Portland–Vancouver metro. That's the kind of security no grocery store can offer.
Resilience isn't anxiety with a pantry
It's the quiet Saturday morning when you know where your family's food is coming from. Your kids ate carrots pulled from the ground yesterday — so sweet they didn't make it to dinner. There are potatoes in the root cellar, squash on the counter, garlic braids in the kitchen. The news is doing what it does. You're not ignoring it. You're just not dependent on the systems it's describing.
That's the feeling this farm is built to provide. Not the grim satisfaction of survival — the simple, deep pleasure of enough. Enough food, from soil you trust, grown by someone you know. The peace of mind isn't theoretical. It's in your hands every time you pick up your share.
Some weeks the harvest is abundant and you'll share extra with a neighbor. Some weeks the weather wins and you'll eat simply. Both are part of the rhythm. That's not a flaw in the model — it's what makes it real. Real food, from a real farm, for real people.
The best time to join is before you need to
A CSA share is a bet on your own community. The potatoes we plant this week feed your family in September. The relationships we build now are the ones that hold when things get hard. Whether grocery prices go up 20% or 60% — or everything stays fine — you'll be glad you have fresh, local food from someone you know.
Pay what works for you. Full shares, half shares, and work-share memberships available — because everyone deserves access to real food, and every pair of hands makes the farm stronger.
Reserve Your Share → See Work-Share & Mutual Aid Options →Sources and context: Oil price data from CNBC and Bloomberg (March 2026). Goldman Sachs recession and inflation projections from their March 25, 2026 US Economics Update. Strait of Hormuz toll reporting from Lloyd's List Intelligence, NBC News, Al Jazeera, and Foreign Policy (March 2026). Fertilizer market impact assessed from Qatar force majeure reporting and Gulf petrochemical facility status. Food price projections synthesized from Oxford Economics, KPMG, RBC, and Vanguard analyses of sustained oil price scenarios. Desalination dependency data from Gulf state government sources. All figures represent published analyst estimates and should be understood as projections, not certainties.
Last updated: April 2026